“I warned ya! Didn’t I warn ya? That chalk was forged by Lucifer himself!” –Groundskeeper Willie
I love The Simpsons, so until I get a cease and desist order from them, I’ll likely be using characters to indicate my alarm level week to week on my lineups. This week, the alarm level is Willie. Willie loves to make dire predictions and then gloat when they come true. I warned you all that early DFS was volatile and this week was just that! Let’s see how my lineups did:
This was my primary cash lineup and it vastly underperformed this week. It got about 125 points and any other week, that would be certain doom in a cash lineup. I never ever cash below 130, but this week was so weird, I was in the running come Monday night. First off, the needed column is how many points they would need to score to make the ‘3X value’ line I keep talking about. You take the salary, divide by 1000 and then multiply that amount by 3 and you get the 3X value line. If you can average more than that number throughout your lineup, you’re gonna score 150 points or so and your chances to win in cash games are solid. So where did it go wrong? Carr and Hyde came in close enough to that magical 3x value that I can pass them by as culprits and then we come to our chalk pick in David Johnson. He got injured and vastly underperformed his projection and literally got half of the point he needed before getting hurt. Arizona played poorly as a unit and it was reflected here. I’m hoping he is ok and does not miss much time. He was still way better than Bell who did not reach 8 total points, so the two top chalk picks at RB were disappointing. Antonio Brown was Antonio Brown, so we can’t blame him and we go to my value picks in Goodwin and Wright, both underwhelmed in a big way. They were low cost and it showed why, I frankly expected more from each of them. I’ll have to take the bullet there. Jimmy Graham is my kryptonite: I can never pick him properly and it happened again here. Miller came up short but given my other errors and the fact that Tom Savage played so poorly that it clearly effected his value, I’ll give him a pass. The Steelers made 5X value but that’s just gravy.
Where I got it right: Brown and Steelers D, but a god DFS team needs more than two hits.
Where I got it wrong: Johnson, Graham, Godwin, and Wright. Had just one of these guys hit value, I’d be fine, it reminds me how volatile Week 1 can be.
Push: Miller, Hyde and Carr, not bad considering all the misses.
Take Away: The fact that I’m 25 points under value and still looking at a shot to cash tells