Once again…. I hate the Thursday game! This game is a great example as to why: two offenses that sruggled to get anything done in week 1, both on a shortened week, both with major question marks n multiple positions. So let’s dive in!
Normally this is the place where I would recommend a couple of guy who are likely to make 3x value in the Thursday game but this week, I’m so down on this matchup, I’m going to explain why you should avoid each position and then explain why I’m still gonna run Thursday pools this week. As always, these salaries are from DraftKings
- The choices at QB are poor. If I had to use someone, I’d use Andy Dalton this week. His salary is down to 5500, which means his value line is 16.5. Could Andy Dalton gets 16.5 points? Maybe, I’m not sure what t make of this offense after week 1. Both Savage (4600) and Watson (4700) are cheaper but I’m not sure who is starting this week and regardless, I’m not really sure either would make value, either would need 14 points. All things being even, I will avoid this position altogether.
- Lamar Miller (5300) is an attractive option with Alfred Blue likely going to miss week 2. Either Miller is going to have an extremely heavy load or the Texans will mix in D’onta Foreman (4100), but Foreman is gonna need at least a TD to get to 12.3 points and Miller is gonna need 16 to make value. While either is possible, I do not think it will happen, so I’m avoiding both. The Bengals backfield is a complete timeshare util someone gets hurt or a clear front runner emerges, so I’m not using any of them either. No one in this matchup made value week 1, so why would I use them in week 2?
- The following statement is a week 1 fact: The only Houston WR targeted in week 1 was DeAndre Hopkins. Not receptions, targets; they literally looked nowhere else. So can we really use anyone? I don’t know! I don’t know who their QB is gonna be. I don’t know how Jaelen Strong (3500) return from suspension is going to factor in. DeAndre Hopkins (7800) is gonna need 23.4 points to reach value this week and I don’t see any way he gets over 20, he was the only guy they threw to last week and he didnt get to 19. If you want a tourney flier, you could check out Strong but there are a lot of question marks. On the Cinci side of the ball, AJ Green (7800) is the number one target but he is in the same boat as Hopkins, I feel his price restricts his usage. The problem is that there are three guys that could perform here: Brandon Lafell (3700), Tyler Boyd (3600), or John Ross (3300). Lafell is listed as the number 2, but most experts agree that Boyd will fill that role before the end of this season. Then you factor in Ross, who the team is supposedly big on and want to gradually increase his role. Here is the bottom line, if any of these guys catch a TD, they are likely to hit value, but which one will they target. Because there will be more reliable options on Sunday, I’m steering clear.
- Tight End might be a place to use someone…..no. First off, every Texan TE that played on Sunday ended up evaluated for a concussion. I have no idea who they are putting out there this week, Houston has already said Fiedorowicz is going on the IR because of his history and the other two are doubtful, so they are likely signing someone to come in for Thursday. So, they are completely useless. Tyler Eifert (3400) was only targeted once last week so I’m not sure what they are going to do here either.
The end result is that there is no one in this contest that jumps off the page as even a flier in a tourney. Jaelen Strong maybe, but only in a tourney where I had to fit him in, absolutely not in a cash game.
That being said, if I can get my research finalized tomorrow, I’m likely going to play in the Thursday contests. I like weeks like these where people feel like they need to use someone in the Thursday game, I’ll fill a Thursday-Monday slate with guys from Sunday and Monday and then wait. That guy who thinks the Bengals are gonna have a 45 point scoring streak and uses Dalton, Bernard and Green will either hit gold or end up 50 points behind me. The poor play/depth of the Bengals make it very difficult to make an accurate stack and the injuries/starter questions of the Texans make it very difficult to stack on that side of the ball. In the end, there is just no one I like using but I like getting into a pool where you use them, its likely to improve my chances.
Take it for what its worth because I’m anti-Thursday, but I think this week is a good reason why. I’m working on projections for the cast tonight, don’t forget to go looking for it Friday morning and as always send us your questions or suggestions to @fignutsdfs or firstname.lastname@example.org