Week 2 kind of stunk. I came up a couple bucks short of breakeven but only one of my four value picks came through. Antonio Brown disappointed, but that game sure didn’t, I just targeted the wrong guys while targeting the right game. So without further ado, here are my value plays for Week 3.
Quarterbacks: For the first time this year, I have some separation in the predictions for QB. I have all but one QB predicted to make value (sorry Sam Bradford), but most importantly I have a short list of four high value QBs that I expect to be usable this weekend. They are Roethlisberger, Brady, Fitzpatrick and Ryan. So who am I using? I trust Ben Roethlisberger after that KC loss the Steelers are hungry. Antonio Brown is going to come out and demand the ball and Ben is going to get it to him. Tampa gave up 40 points to the Saints, I doubt they will be able to stop Pittsburgh if they start throwing the ball. I also trust Tom Brady this week. Detroit simply is not as good as advertised and they are going through growing pains. The Pats are also coming of a loss and they are not very happy, I expect his line to include some insane accuracy like 32 of 34. So he is absolutely usable. But the guy I’m targeting in particular is Matt Ryan. They are home against New Orleans in a game that is likely to be an indoor version of the shootout we saw last week with the Chiefs. The only shock with this game is that its the third highest over/under of the week. The other games with higher totals? The Patriots and Steelers, any of these guys are excellent values this week.
Running Backs: I have seven names on my value list for Running Back but I’m only trusting four of them. I like Corey Clement, Dion Lewis, James Conner and Isaiah Crowell this week. Ajayi is hurt meaning Clement will get the volume this week. Philadelphia needs a win to get back on track and Indy is not very good. I think this game could be a one sided affair with tons of garbage time touches for Clement. Dion Lewis underwhelmed last week and I think he will bounce back against Jacksonville this week. The concern with Lewis is that if Jax gets out to a big lead the Titans may panic and start throwing like crazy, no matter who the QB is, but I’m definitely looking at him as a low cost option if I need him. Isaiah Crowell is the same price as Lewis but is going up against Cleveland, thats a great matchup for a guy who once played there. He knows the stadium and the team better than you might think so I’m definitely putting him in some lineups. James Conner was another of my disappointments last week but I think he will bounce back. I’ll be honest, his price tag is up so I’d rather use Crowell and Clement in most formats to save money for use elsewhere because of….
Wide Receivers: Have extremely limited value this week. Most of the guys are risky, I have four on my list,m I’ll share the three I plan to use. Paul Richardson Jr. has seen his workload increase each week and John Hansen pointed out on his show this week that he was on the field for 90% of the offensive snaps last week. Thats gonna mean a bigger and bigger role and his price tag is still value oriented. I’m loving Tyler Boyd this week against Carolina. AJ Green seldom puts up big back to back games, so I anticipate Boyd will see more action this week. Finally, while Keelan Cole appears to be the big man in Jax, I like Donte Moncrief this week because he is under 4k and has the potential for 12-15 points easy.
Tight End: I love me some Austin Hooper this week. He has big potential in a high scoring game this week and he is UNDER 3K. How does that happen? With Matt Ryan and Hooper both in my picks, I smell a stack coming. Some are suggesting Jared Cook bounces back against Miami, but the Hooper price tag is too attractive. Cook or even Ebron would be alternatives that I’ll personally pass on.
DST: If I’m gonna go big enough to complete my stack I’m gonna need a cheap defense. I like the Cowboys this week. Seattle looked confused against Chicago last week and I think Dallas could really step up in a big road game. The 49ers and Bills are other cheap plays but I wouldnt touch either considering their matchups.
My overall strategy this week is balance. I’m gonna use one of my value QBS, then use two value RBs, then use at least one stud WR, one value WR and a midrange guy. Using Hooper and the Cowboys should save me enough money to throw a stud RB into my flex. You could also consider going Stud, value value at WR so you can blow open the bank on a big name in the flex this week, but thats what I’m doing. look value at RB and 2WR and you can spend up elsewhere. Goodluck everyone!
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