This week was terrible! I didn’t cash, injuries to Hogan, Freeman and Reed (while not unexpected) were all crushing. So this week, I’m channeling Homer Screaming. There is an episode in which Homer is hypnotized and uncovers a terrible repressed memory, he spends the next several minutes screaming constantly and uncontrollably. That is me this week. So in between my screams, let’s see how the Metric did.
I recommended a total of 9 individuals as potential value plays with four of them coming in the TE ranks, so let’s see how we did.
Home Runs: We had one Home Run and that was Jack Doyle (9.4x). I cannot make heads or tales of Jack Doyle or the 12 receptions he had this week. He returned exceptional value this week and if you used him, you likely had money to spend elsewhere. Every week, I look at Jack Doyle and see 3-7 points and two or three times a year he makes me look very stupid, this is one of those times. I honestly ended up not using him but going heavy on Kroft and how did he do….
Value: Dalton (3.2x), Gore (3.5x) and Kroft (3.2x) all made value this week. If you started a combo of Dalton and Kroft you were off to a good start. Of course, that wasn’t the best combo of the week, but it’s the best one I predicted. Gore is clearly usable on two factors: matchup and cost. In any beneficial matchup where his salary is 4k or less, he is usable.
Near Miss: Mixon (2.7x) and Ben Watson (2.9x) fall into this category. I really had high hopes for Joe Mixon and one of my sources spent the entire week pushing him up, saying this would be the breakout week and he was dead wrong. Most of his points came on receptions, not rushes, I think Mixon will be a matchup/Salary play going forward but I also think his salary will be pretty high making him virtually unusable going forward. Ben Watson is a guy I don’t use a lot, he gets hurt and is not always guaranteed to play so I usually steer clear.
Miss: Moore (1.1x), Doctson (1.8x), Dickson (1.9x) all fall into this category. I advised folks to avoid the Miami game and in this case, I was right to fade the game. Of course, there were numerous good options on the Ravens, but I did not call for them. The Doctson miss is extremely frustrating. Every week, the Redskins try to push a different receivers, there is no clear pecking order there. Pryor? Doctson? Crowder? Every week, they seem to look at a new guy as their number one and its maddening. Doctson’s role had been increasing the last two weeks and even the coaches seemed to say that it needed to keep expanding and yet they gave the better route opportunities to Crowder. Ed Dickson, I’m not shocked by, I mean the opportunity was there but with so many good TE options this week, I was not going to use him anyway.
So 4 of my nine picks hit value this week, so why didn’t I cash this week? And the answer is that I invested in guys like AJ Green and Leveon Bell all of whom came in under projections. This week it was a week to use chalk in the right places, but you had to use the right chalk. In my pools, the difference between cash and loss was choosing Elliott over Bell. I paired Bell with Gore, had I gone with Elliott, I’d have been fine. Because of the volatility of the year, I’ve been focused on matchup plays but I think its time to start thinking even more about those matchups. Maybe Cinci at Indy was not as good as it looked? Heck even New Orleans was really average at home this week, meanwhile guys like Derek Carr excelled against the Buffalo defense, Watson shredded Seattle and tonight we have KC at Denver. Would anyone be shocked if Smith had a night against the Denver D? another consideration this week was weather. Weather directly effected the Buffalo, Jets, New England and Washington games. That’s really changes things too, so we will be looking more a that.
Look for more on week 9 around Wednesday and catch the next podcast on Friday. Thanks for following, I hope you cashed in week 8!