Week 3 was wild. I’m holding off declaring victory or admitting defeat until tomorrow. As usual a couple plays came out ahead and a couple disappointed (really, Tom Brady? Really?). But I had a really good week and it was because of making two really smart value decisions and sorting out the hype on the others.
I’m guilty of it too. If you read my article from last week, you saw me gush about Corey Celement. That was before he hit the injury report and I know my audience is smart enough to know that something I publish on Wednesday has to be re-evaluated when they go on the injury report on Friday. But let’s discuss the other guys out there that people were screaming about as cheap substitutes for injured players: guys like Latavius Murray, TJ Yeldon, Roc Thomas (yup, I heard someone tell me to start Roc Thomas), Calvin Ridley, and James Conner (YTP). How did that slam dunk Murray/Clement stack work for you? Which is the point of this DFS Lesson: Not every DFS value is going to be a value! If you banked on either or both of those guys, you likely lost this week.
On the other hand, identifying one or two values and saving money with the right combo opens so many doors in DFS. Which is the second part of the lesson: Identifying value plays in DFS means the difference between winning and losing. Plain and simple, without picking the right value play, you’re sunk.
I had a big week and I’ll tell you how. I followed my own advice and used Tyler Boyd, Austin Hooper and the Dallas D/ST as much as I could. Dallas was +2 and Hooper only scored 7.3 but Boyd went off for 28.7 points, so when you factor them as a stack they provided me 38 points on a salary of only 8800. Thats a 4.3x value and opens up 41,200 dollars in salary for the rest of my lineup. That flexibility allowed me to chase my Atlanta stack (Ryan & Ridley) which was then able to include Gurley. Using the same 3 value players, I was able to also do a New Orleans stack (Brees/Kamara/Thomas) in a separate lineup. Both are cashing in 90% of contests I entered.
Now what would have happened if I’d chased Murray and Clement instead of Hooper/Dallas? I wouldnt be able to afford my stack and thus missed the cash line in more instances. So the moral of the story is to choose your value plays carefully. Not every value play will pan out and picking the right combo will allow you to create winning lineups. This week I targeted the Hooper/Boyd/Dallas stack to creat cap space and then looked at ATlanta/NO as a shootout and cashed. Looking ahead, where is that value in week 4, the combo where most things are gonna fall right? If they make value as a group, thats all that matters and thats what is important to remember.