So he we are. The season kicks off tonight. As I did last year, I’ll be trying to do a weekly article in addition to the Podcast on value plays for Draftkings DFS. Let me start by saying that a number of individuals have gone on record saying that the 2018 preseason has been relatively useless: We didn’t get a ton of clarity on some position battles, players who changed homes didn’t provide a lot of clarity; we just didn’t learn a lot. Consequently, we go into Week 1 behind the proverbial eight ball. I fully expect to make a lot of mistakes in my projections, and this week will be no different. That being said, a couple reminders:
- I’m not Football Houdini. I’m gonna be wrong. I’m using my personal analysis and DraftKings salaries to suggest value plays.
- Suggestions do not mean they are going to lead the position at points, it means that based on their salary, they are likely to return high value and thus should be considered for salary saving purposes.
- My projections very rarely ever consider ownership as a factor. So I dont use these guys in tournaments, I use them primarily in cash games and recommend you do the same.
- Finally, play responsibly, Its not my fault if you lose using my picks. You don’t send me a chunk of your winnings, so dont hold me responsible for a portion of your losses.
Ok, let talk about guys who can save you some money and make you a winner!
Quarterbacks: Using my predictions, there are over 20 quarterbacks who will return 3x value. That means for me, that any of them are usable. No QB is predicted to return 4x value, so my suggestion at QB is to fill out the rest of your lineup and then use your available salary to grab the best guy available. There is very little difference in the value return of Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Fitzpatrick in week 1.
Running Backs: Here there is a little more competition. The guy I’m really looking at is Lamar Miller. The game is a 51 point line, the highest of the week and I think this is gonna be a purely offensive game. Its honestly a game Houston can win if everything goes correctly. So I love Miller. Everyone is on James Conner, but if you need me to tell you that the starting running back for Pittsburgh is a value at only 4500, then you must be really new to DFS.
Wide Receiver: The only guys predicted to have big value are Ryan Grant and John Brown. I like Brown, particularly if you pair him with Joe Flacco. I’m not so big on Grant though. Although using Flacco, Miller, Grant and Brown, I had one lineup that allowed me to round out with Gurley and Elliott which is the whole point of using value guys, saving enough money to use studs. So use your judgement there.
Tight End: I honestly have no real value plays here except for David Njoku and everyone has been talking about him. Cleveland is 1-18 on opening day, yes you heard that correctly, they have one once on opening day wince they returned to the league and playing the Steelers will not help much, so be cautious there.
Whatever you decide to do in week 1, best of luck. we wish you success and winning ways!