So far we’ve evaluated my top QBs and RBs in earlier posts, now its time to take a look at the wide outs, arguably the most important part of a fantasy team in recent meta-gaming. I remember a time where a ‘zero RB’ attempt would be absolutely useless, but in the current market, more and more folks are relying on the pass catchers for their fantasy points, so let’s dive in. Remember these are early projections and will likely change as we get closer to the season.
- Antonio Brown: Well if you listened to the podcast last week, I was definitely concerned about AB. He seems to be struggling a bit with the attention he commands and his team has a lot of drama surrounding it with high expectations, but the bottom line is that he is the only wideout that is a consensus pick for 300+ fantasy points this year, so we will keep a close eye on it but he is clearly the top of the list.
- DeAndre Hopkins: Yup, I was surprised to see him this high too, but the experts are big on him this year and its hard not to be, with Watson returning and a three year average of 17 points per game. I believe he is beyond that less than stellar 2016 season (954yds 4 TD) and a lot of that is because of Watson coming in and more stability at QB.
- Julio Jones: But but but, he has 250 yard games! True but he only broke 100 yards in four of 16 games. Julio is a bit of a conundrum, he catches a high rate of targets, but there were four games last year where he garnered six or fewer targets and he simply cannot produce with a three catch on six target day, and he only had three touchdowns last year. He feels more and more like an all or nothing kind of play, but if you get the ‘all’ side of that, he is amazing.
- Odell Beckham Jr.: Few people have been harsher on Beckham than I have. I dislike guys who create more drama than points and that has been his calling card. He wants a new contract, he thinks he is an elite talent but coming off of injury, I want to see him really focus on improving and focusing on the field. He gets the targets, and is usually over a 50% catch rate, but there are moments where his concentration seems to falter (anyone else remember that 3 of 9 in Minnesota?). If he comes out the gate looking healthy and focused, he could end up leading the league, and I hope he does.
- Michael Thomas: I love this kid, but last year was just flat out disappointing in fantasy football. He had more yards, more catches, but his yards per catch was down a little bit and he only caught five touchdowns. Part of the problem there is the running game has just evolved into a juggernaut, but as teams adjusted to worry about the Saints backfield, he became more consistent. Last seven games of the year he averaged 10.5 fantasy points per game, first seven games he averaged only eight fantasy points.
- Davantae Adams: With Nelson gone and Rodgers healthy, Adams should see a lot of attention in the Packers offense this year. He still hasn’t had that mega breakout year, but he probably would have had it last year if Rodgers had stayed healthy. I personally think he is gonna be boom or but, he’ll end up top 5 or outside the top 15 this year. But all the signs are there for the former.
- AJ Green: In over twenty years of fantasy football, I have never had a more excruciatingly talented guy. He looked poised for a HoF career after he put up 1300+ yardage season, 10+ TD seasons in 2012 and 2013, and then it just didn’t keep going. He’s had double digit touchdowns once since then (2015) and has been under 1100 yards three times in the five years since. I just cant figure out what to do with him, and I’m not alone, he is as high WR #5 on some lists and as low as WR #8 on others. He’s coming off a year where the catch rate was down and the YPG was down, I hope he bounces back.
- Keenan Allen: Oh am I gonna get flack for this. The golden boy who started out slow and then went red hot last year is behind Adams and Green. I’m not convinced that we have truly seen the breakout of this guy. He did see 159 targets last year, only one target shy of ten per game, but dont forget that in the 14 games he played in 2014 he got over 120 targets which is over eight per game and he had fewer than 80 receptions. So I’m not convinced by the volume argument with him. 2018 is a make or break year for him, can he continue the success and lead this Chargers team to the next level as many have predicted, or will it be a momentary burst of production that ended last season, we will see. Because of the mild amount of risk involved, I have him down here at eight while others have him as high as three. I’m simply not sold.
- Doug Baldwin: This guy gives me fits. His numbers are great but his fantasy production is so hit or miss, that I cannot rely on him. He only had one double digit fantasy performance in his first five games last year. His last five games he posted 8, 13, 0, 9 and 21 points. What the Hell? He has one terrible game in that stretch but otherwise posts a minimum of 8 points, I just cant figure him out.
- Mike Evans: If trying to figure out Green, Allen and Baldwin were not exhausting enough; here comes Mike Evans. A top three projection by many in 2017, this year, I’m looking at him as a WR2and he will have to be sitting there in a later round for me to take that step. Some other guy will likely snap him up before me and I’ll be glad for it.
Fignuts DFS Podcast and Beer Reviews 