Nothing says ‘Fantasy Football season is coming!’ like projections. The three months period where we evaluate, calculate and overthink every possible addition to our teams is one of my favorite of the yer. So, as Season 1 of the Football Fignuts Podcast draws to a close, here are my early season top tens by position. We start with QB. I’ll detail my thoughts about the top 5 and then brush upon 6-10.
A word on how I arrive at these projections. I reference a lot of publicly available information, weigh it and then institute my own personal formula to create my rankings. My rankings incorporate projections and past performance (including games missed due to injury). These are subject to change and update as we get closer to the season, but for right now, here we go:
- Aaron Rodgers: Despite missing a great deal of time to injury, most folks have him in their top two QBs going into this year. I fully expect him to be good for about 22 points per game this year on average, which would put him at over 330 points for the season. That is of course presuming he stays upright. The Packers O-Line was ranked 13th last year by Pro Football Focus, so there is risk there but not enough for me to ignore that he is the obvious choice for the 1 spot. Am I worried about the loss of Jordy Nelson, a bit but theres so much talent on that offense that I cannot question Rodgers.
- Tom Brady: Ranked as high as #1 on some charts, as low as #5 on others; there is some doubt that Brady is going to continue to be Brady. Whether the decline is coming and whether the reports of rifts forming within the team are accurate, he is still a safe bet. He has been the 4th best QB over the last three seasons and there is still sufficient weaponry in New England to think he will continue to be a reliable QB. While I wouldnt trade up to get him, if I were sitting in the 6th or 7th round and looking at Brady, I’d probably have to take him as my starter.
- Russell Wilson: Believe it or not, no other QB has scored more points in the last three years than Russell Wilson according to CBS Sports. I’ve never been a big fan of Wilson, but there is no denying that his consistency and improvement have earned him a spot in the top tier of quarterbacks.
- Cam Newton: Honestly, I was shocked to find him in my top 5. Many experts expect a resurgence. I fully expect to downgrade him a bit as we get closer to the season but right now, surrounded by offensive weapons and with a pair of legs that can change a game (real or fantasy), he is a major fantasy asset and the best of my second tier at QB.
- Carson Wentz: One pundit has him on the same level as Russell Wilson, one a point off of Brady. People obviously believe the reports that he is fully recovered and is stepping back into an offense that not only won the Super Bowl but would have been compared to the Greatest Show on Turf if not for the Rams emerging offense. Fact is, if Wentz stays healthy he could score as many as 357 fantasy points this season, thats 23.8 points per game and would be a truly epic season. If not for the injury, I think he would be even higher.
- Deshaun Watson: Speaking of guys who are coming off injury….
- Drew Brees: If age isn’t catching up with Brady, folks sure think its catching up with Brees.
- Kirk Cousins: New place, new faces, but people have high hopes for Kirk.
- Ben Roethlisberger: I am very disappointed that he ranked this high. I would rather have…
- Jimmy Garoppolo: I think he is due for a breakout and will end up top 5 when its all said and done, but not everyone is so sure.
So thats my early season top ten QB, next up is Running Back!