Thanksgiving is behind us, as is my mystery illness which has made it pretty much impossible for me to think long enough to write the last two weeks. I have discovered that when I’m not well, I can still tweet though and I’ve connected with many of you that way. But I’m back and there is a lot of interesting value plays this week. Let’s jump in to Week 12!
At Quarterback, the Metric has four QBS that it likes for value plays this week on DraftKings: C.J. Beathard (4600), Paxton Lynch (4500), Brett Hundley (4400) and Blaine Gabbert (4600). The problem is that Beathard is the only one I’m projecting at 20 points, the others all come in around 19 points. So they are great plays if you think they will produce more than 20 points. I’m not confident in any of them so I’m gonna spend a little more this weekend and try to save elsewhere. I’m personally liking, Russell Wilson (7000) this week. I know what you’re thinking, “Real easy to push Wilson, he’s one of the most expensive QBs this week, great insight” and you’re right, he’s the easy pick. But in a cash game, he’s been a reliable option with a tremendous matchup and in a week where all the high value guys are also high risk, I’m gonna pay up at QB. So I’m likely gonna risk Beathard in a tourney and focus on using more reliable options like Wilson in cash. I also like Tyrod Taylor (5800) as a cheaper option if you dont want to use Wilson. I’ll likely end up using Tyrod myself honestly, just to save some cash.
At Running Back, the Metric likes Frank Gore (3600), Isaiah Crowell (3900) and Marshawn Lynch (4000). All are low cost and I’ve got them all around 13-14 points. I’m not big on Gore, which is a change for me. I worry about what appears to be the increasing role of Marlon Mack (3600). Now Mack is streaky, four games of 10+ points in last eight games and four games of less than 5 points, so he really isn’t usable and I don’t think Gore will perform well against the Titans, he had 8.7 points against them in the earlier matchup. This is a better passing matchup than running game, so I’m fading them except maybe in a tournament. I’d like to feed the Crow as they like to say in Cleveland, but I’m worried because Duke Johnson was the big producer against Cinci in their first game. I’m never a big Lynch guy…. ever…… and again, the matchup is not very good, he had less than 2 points in the first matchup against Denver. In short you have three guys here that all under-performed expectations in earlier matchups this year, so I might think about them in a tourney lineup but not here. This week, I like the matchup for Carlos Hyde (5500), but I’m likely really paying up here as well. I really love Mark Ingram (8300) and/or Alvin Kamara (7900) this week. This is where your lineup choices can diverge. If you want to go RB heavy, you can and go super cheap at Wide Receiver, I’m looking more balance this week so I’m likely to use Ingram and someone cheap (I’ll probably use Gore, even though I’m reluctant to do so) and that will allow me some dollars at WR.
So let’s talk about Wide Receivers, there are couple good options for flyers and some good matchup picks. The Metric likes Dontrelle Inman (3500) and Marquise Goodwin (3900) and Mike Wallace (4400) as strong value candidates. Inman has posted improved number the last two starts but is still a long shot to get to 10 points, so I’ll only use him if I have to. Goodwin is streaky but appears to be trending up under Beathard. Other than the zero he posted against Philadelphia, he has been good for at least 8 points for the last month. So I like Goodwin as a cheap option that will help me spend up elsewhere. I’m not really sure what to make of Mike Wallace, so I’ll fade him. I like the upside of Jarvis Landry (6800) and Mohamed Sanu (5200) this week as their matchups are both pretty favorable. But you may have trouble paying for them if you paid up at RB, so you might have to do a balancing act. Me personally, I’m likely to go Landry, Sanu and Goodwin.
Tight End is a mess, both the Metric and I like Jack Doyle (4500). The Metric is really loving Julius Thomas (2700) because of his price tag but I’m not really feeling it, so I’m going to pay up a bit and hope its a good day for Doyle.
At Defense, there are no clear value options. The Metric suggests the Colts but I’m gonna pay up for the improved Patriots defense. That seems counter-intuitive as I just spoke highly of Landry, but I think they are gonna have a hard time running on the Pats and are gonna have to throw, that means two things: WR catches and Interceptions and both bode well in my matchup.
In conclusion, there are good high price options at every position this week, it really depends where you want to pay up. I’m likely to pay up at RB this week, go mid-range at QB and then balance out at Wide Receiver. I have more faith that the cheap WRs will come through over the cheap RBs.
Have a great week 12 everybody.