Well another week is upon us and its time to look at the week 10 matchups. As always, I’m largely fading the Thursday games and I’m really focused on the main slate.
The only game that Vegas has in the 50+ range this week is Dallas at Atlanta. Two teams with a lot of offensive weapons and questionable defenses. We saw what Dallas did to a questionable Chiefs defense last week and I think you can expect similar results this week. I’m not really excited about this matchup but I’ll use it in spots. The game I’m looking at stacking this week is Pittsburgh at Colts. I really like most of the chalk in this matchup. I like Roethlisberger (a statement I don’t make often), Bell, Brown and Smith-Shuster to all have decent days, but this is an article on value plays and none of those guys qualify, so let’s talk about who I like and who the Metric likes.
Really quick, if you were wondering how we did last week, The Metric recommended 10 players and 5 of them made value. I recommended 8 players and 4 of them made value, so it was a complete wash.
Quarterbacks: I like Matt Ryan (6500) and Marcus Mariota (5800) this week. As I mentioned the first game has big score potential and I’m not really afraid of the Bengals defense. In a lot of ways, I feel like they’ve given up on their coach, so I’m willing to go that route if I have to. If I can afford him though, I’m likely using a few shares of Ryan. The Metric likes Ryan Fitzpatrick (4900), Brock Osweiler (4400) and Andy Dalton (5300). I cant back any of those guys. As I mentioned I think Cinci has given up (which is a big problem for me, I need Joe Mixon in my season long this week), eventually the Broncos are going to have to call this a lost season and start looking to use Paxton Lynch and that could happen in the middle of a game, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is way too much of a wildcard for me to use. So this week, I’m looking at the more reliable options, even if I have to pay up a little bit.
Runningbacks: The Metric has a laundry list of guys to consider. It likes Rawls (3400), Darkwa (4500), Gore (3700), Crowell (4300) and Forte (4400) to name a few. I’m fading Thursday, so that gets rid of Rawls, Crowell has the Duke Johnson effect to consider and I do think you are going to see his role continue to over take Crowell’s and Forte did not practice Wednesday. I can see using Gore or Darkwa and if you want to go with Bell you are likely going to have to use one of them to balance out the salaries. This week, I’m eyeballing Bell (9800) and Howards (6100). Bell is not a value play and the odds he gets to 30 points to make value is minimal, so to use him I gotta use someone off that list from the Metric, probably Darkwa. Howard is a little more interesting, he did well against the Packers earlier this year, so it looks hopeful for him this week.
Wide Receiver: This week, I really want to go with Antonio Brown because of the matchup, but I’m really looking at going midrange across the board, its something you’ll hear me talk about on the podcast with Craig and I gotta admit, the more I thought about his approach, the more I liked it. I’m looking midrange guys like Sterling Sheppard (5500) and Larry Fitzgerald (5400), Fitz plays on Thursday night so that kind of hurts my chances of using him, so I might also consider using Robert Woods (5000) or Robby Anderson (5200) but I’m not really psyched about either option to be honest. If you want to go the other way and use a big chalk option like Brown (9500) or Julio Jones (7700), then you are absolutely going to need one of the Metric value options and the Metric likes Adam Humphries (3100), Marquise Goodwin (3800) and Kendall Wright (3200) as value plays this week. Of that list, I only really like Goodwin. Humphries has the potential to benefit from Evans being suspended but the QB is wicky, so I’m going to avoid it. I could definitely seeing playing Godwin with Brown and Sheppard which would use about 20k of your salary but if you’re saving in other areas, you can afford it.
Tight End: This is an area you can definitely save this week. The Metric likes Julius Thomas (2800) and Ed Dickson (3000). Dickson was one of the Matric’s big misses last week, his inconsistency makes him a reach play in tournaments only, I just never know when he is going to produce. And the last time the Metric told me to use Julius Thomas, he went off in London. So I’m tempted to use him but I’m fading both those picks and going against my own advice and using Tyler Kroft (3600). I know I said Cinci has given up and I stick by that but I have a feeling that Kroft might pull through and by using him at that salary, I am opening up my WR options.
Defense: Normally, I just advocate for the guys playing the Browns, but this week I’m trying tosmehting different. I like the Vikings (3100). Yes, its on the road, yes its Washington, but I think the Vikings are going to control the run and force Washington to throw the ball and ifr they do and can force a mistake or two, they could have a big game. The Metric really likes the Cowboys (2200), but that game has ‘high scoring’ written all over it so I’m absolutely fading that pick.
So this week, I am definitely going with more established players where possible and saving money where I have to. I do have a lineup with the Steelers stack I described earlier and its only possible if you use a Goodwin and a Kroft to balance out the cost. Whatever you do this weekend, please watch the injury reports Sunday morning. We have a lot of guys who are late scratches and it can kill your lineup. Good luck in week 10 everybody!