Lots of interesting options this week in DFS, so let’s start by dismissing the one game, no one should touch in anyway, shape or form. Seriously, if you want to cash this week, stay out of this game altogether, there will be someone with value but I’m not liking it at all, so I’m urging folks to stay out of this game.
That game is the Thursday night game Dolphins at Ravens. I just don’t know what to make of these two teams. Joe Flacco has never lost to the Dolphins, but his team is terrible. Matt Moore is looking like a good fill in, but its his first full game this season. There is just too many question marks, so I am completely fading this game. This will also allow you to enter in non-Thursday pools which I kind of like. So with that in mind who should I use?
Quarterbacks: The Metric wants you all to start Matt Moore (4500), but I’m fading that game and there is a couple of reasons I will not use him at all in DFS this week. First off, he is likely to be super highly owned. He is a potential play in both cash and tournament formats and I expect a lot of guys to use him. Second, I am not confident in a guy who I have seen for half a game as the star of my lineup. Instead, I’m going to save some cash on another risky play, Andy Dalton (5700). Cinci is playing the Colts who look absolutely lost on defense and we’ve seen some decent games out of Dalton. Because they have struggled, his price tag is down and he has the potential to provide 4x value in this match. Now, cash games are about stability and Dalton is risky, so I’m also going to get some shares of Jameis Winston (6100) and Kirk Cousins (6400). I think both will score around 18 points, but they are more expensive and using them is going to force me to cut elsewhere.
RunningBacks: The Metric again wants me to use Frank Gore (4000), but I don’t want to. Gore has not made value for three straight weeks and his role is shrinking on a team who is playing from behind a lot. That being said, he is down to a place where he might make value. So you can use him if you want, but I’m going to use him very sparingly. Instead, I’m looking at Joe Mixon (4700). I think he could turn in 15 points and that would put him over the value line. It scares me that I’m already endorsing two Bengals though. Otherwise, there isn’t a lot of value at RB this week.
Wide Receivers: The only guy the Metric likes this week is Josh Doctson (3900), that’s mainly a function of his low salary and slowly expanding role. I kind of like him to get a few targets this week, but I’m also acutely aware that he has not made value the last three weeks. What also makes him attractive is that Cousins will be in a few of my lineups this week and I like that stack. So I’ll use him in ma few pools. Beyond him there are not a lot of predicted value plays, so I’ll likely look at second string guys to fill in the WRs. Guys like Sanu or LaFell have some upside.
Tight End: There is a different story at Tight End this week. There are four players that the Mtric have identified as potential value plays: Tyler Kroft (3000), Ben Watson (3000), Jack Doyle (3500) and Ed Dickson (3400). Watson is on the injury report as of my writing this so I’m backing off him. Kroft is fine as long as he is healthy. I’m not sure what to do with Doyle and Dickson, so I’m likely to use Kroft mostly, but any of these guys, as long as they are healthy are options. In lineups where I’m using Dalton, using Kroft makes a lot of sense.
Defense: I love the Vikings (4000) but they play in the early Sunday game which is not included in a lot of pools, so I’m hedging them with the Metric’s pick of the Buccaneers (2600) in other pools. I just never know which Cam Newton is gonna show up and that scares me.
So there is a narrative where if you think that Cinci will do well, there is a Dalton, Mixon, Kroft stack that will save you money and allow you go with a stud WR or RB. But its still Cinci and I have no idea what they will end up doing. So I’m going to maybe play them but I may diversify. The Metric is not really calling for it but I also really like a NO stack at home but we will see. So I’m put myself out there with: Matt Moore, Andy Dlton, Frank Gore, Joe Mixon, Josh Doctson, Tyler Kroft, Ben Watson, Jack Doyle and Ed Dickson this week. I’ll evaluate my success on those guys and recommend you take a look at them. Good luck in Week 8, cash big and listen to the podcast tomorrow!