Week 7 DFS with Thursday Preview

If you read the week 6 recap, you know I was thrilled with the results. The majority (10 of 16) recommended players made value and I fully expect that trend to continue this week. But before I get into the predictions, a quick reminder about how this system works. This system is designed to identify value players in DraftKings. That means players with high point projections and low salaries. If you can find two or three solid values and then fill in the lineup with guys who are regular producers, you win in cash games. That is the whole idea, save money on certain guys that allows you to spend up in other places. So keep in mind that hitting on 10 of 16 is really really good. You wont see a lot of posts on Leveon Bell or Rob Gronkowski here because their salary will always be too high to be recommended value plays. That doesn’t mean you cant use those guys, it just means you have to pay attention to where you can save salary money first.

All that being said, here is what I see for Week 7.  There is only one game over the 50+ line and its Atlanta/NE. And that is the Sunday night game. DraftKings has restricted that particular game to the Thursday-Monday pools and the prime time pool, which is absolutely the stupidest move I’ve ever seen. Its clearly a ploy by DraftKings to alter betting and it screws us in weeks like this week. I’ve emailed them and expressed my disgust, hopefully they make a change in the coming weeks, but unless you’re playing a pool that includes Sunday night, there is no game to target this week.

Quarterbacks: The values here have really evened out. The only players I’m fading completely are Flacco and Roethlisberger, I will absolutely not use them in any lineup this weekend. The hot option of the week is Brett Hundley, but remember that ownership  percentages matter and I expect a ton of people will case points with him. Instead I’m using Kirk Cousins (6500) in spots where I’m looking for a more steady option, but I’m definitely rolling the dice a little bit and using Bortles (4700) and Taylor (5100)  in most of my pools. I think if Bortles can remember that he is an NFL quarterback, he could easily put up 20 points against this defense. According to Draftkings, the Colts are 27th in the league against fantasy QBs, so I’ve got to think that at a salary under 5k he has the potential to return 5x. So Cousins is my chalk call, and Bortles and Taylor are my value plays and I fully anticipate to have lineups with all three in there.

Runningbacks: There is only one guy who is predicted to make value this week and its Frank Gore (4100). Gore is the most consistent running back we have this year. He has played in all six week and has been over ten points in four of the six weeks. The two games he did not get to double digit points, one was a blow out (lost 9-46) and the other was the shootout that happened on Monday night with the Titans. Most of their games have been close and his production has been pretty consistent in the 11-13 point range. So he isn’t glamorous and may only get a dozen points but at his salary it opens you up to take some of the bigger names. Tevin Coleman is another attractive option but I’m likely not using him because I never know how much Freeman will get. Same with Bernard who is also cheap, but unreliable. If I’m saving money on Gore, then I’m looking at maybe Elliott (9000) or Fournette (8600) to round it our but I do not expect either to get to value, I mean Elliott would need 27 points to make value but he could score big. So this week, I’d use a cheap option like Gore and then pair it with someone you think is more reliable. Gore is the only name I am backing in the value category this week.

Wide Receiver: There are a lot of guys out there this week that are role players that are cheap but expected to deliver. Guys like Bennie Fowler, Kendall Wright, Brandon Tate, Josh Doctson, Robert Woods and Eric Decker are all projected to make value for their salaries. But these guys are high ceiling (could get in the end zone and score 15pts or more) but literally have no floor (a zero score is possible), so who do you use? I’m definitely using Decker (4300), he hasn’t made value yet this week, but its against Cleveland and I expect them to lock down on Rishard Matthews would should create a ton of opportunities for Decker. I’m also buying the chatter on Doctson (3800), I think its a matter of time before they start feeding him the ball regularly and think of it this way, if he catches two passes for twenty yards and touchdown, he makes value and with that price tag he is going to let you use a more expensive option. I was big on Tate (3500) as well, but there is a chance that Mathews plays this week. If Mathews is out, I’ll throw Tate into a lineup, otherwise I might suggest Woods (4000) instead. In terms of chalk, I am absolutely going to use AJ Green (8300), he does great against the Steelers historically and I think this game will be another example. He may not make value but I see close to 20 points for him this week, so if using two of these guys gets me Green and he performs, it would be totally worth it. So to recap, I like Decker, Doctson and Tate/Woods for value picks and Green for my chalk pick.

Tight Ends: Much like Wide Receiver, there is a bunch of guys here who are lost cost/high potential. I’m completely fading the chalk this week. Guys Gronk, Kelce and Ertz are all over 6k in salary and not worth the look. Why am I going to spend 6900 on Ertz when I can literally spend half that on a guy who will get similar points? So with that in mind, I anticipate possible value plays to include: Kroft (3000), O’Leary (3100), Doyle (3400), Watson (3000), Higbee (2700), and Hooper (4100). None of these guys are slam dunk, must use options, so use your gut and your budget to decide. All things being even, I’m using Hooper as my first option, but that is Sunday night and if you’re in a Sunday only pool, you cannot use him. Kroft is appealing but it looked like the Steelers did a good job on Kelce last week (that may have been a bad Kelce performance or a great Steeler performance), so I may use him but I’m proceeding cautiously. If Jack Doyle didn’t drop passes, he would be a must use. So what I’ll say is that I think any of these guys could produce and any of these guys could bust, use your judgement but stay away from the chalk this week. If you pin me to a wall, I’m using Hooper or Doyle most likely.

Defense: The Metric is saying the Patriots will make value. I find that hard to believe. While the Pats defense is improving, there are so many weapons on Atlanta that I’m not really liking. Factor in, again, that DraftKings has restricted access to this game because they apparently don’t want your business, and you need to look elsewhere. So there are no real values at defense and its a weird spot anyway, so I’m using the Titans vs the Browns. I could also suggest using the Broncos, but I’m rolling with the titans this week.

Finally, we come to Thursday night. Every report I have heard is that both teams were struggling to get ready for this game. Recovery time, game planning, etc are all going to suffer. In my opinion, Andy Reid is a planner and his record coming off bye weeks kind of backs that up. He had months to prepare for the Pats in Week 1 and look how well that went, with only three days to prep, I’m not really liking them this week. The Raiders are in disarray. Carr looks terrible, the wide receivers are dropping passes and I think Lynch flips a coin that determines his effort level each week. So I’m not using them. In short, I’m staying completely away from this game, even my beloved Kareem Hunt is on my list of players to avoid. So I’m out of Thursday night and thats why the preview is brief, I’m simply not going there.

Best of luck in Week 7, I hope you all cash and I hope this info is helpful in making your lineup decisions. I’m no lineup expert, I consider myself good at finding value and giving you flexibility to fill out a lineup. The podcast releases tomorrow, with a special surprise guest! Enjoy week 7 and as always, please reach out to us at http://www.fignutsdfs.com or via email fignutsdfs@gmail.com or on Twitter @fignutsdfs or on Facebook The Football Fignuts. We love hearing from you, even when you tell us we suck! Have a great week everyone.

Author: fignutsdfs

Just a couple of guys who love fantasy football and love sharing their knowledge with the world. Also love Beer! You gotta have beer!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: