Week 5 was again brutal, the values on the fantasy sites were out of whack and that created odd value plays that simply didn’t pan out. The good news is that it looks like the values have finally normalized and I think Week 6 in DFS could be great for cash games.
First off let me apologize for there being no podcast this week. When Craig and I sat down to plan out this podcast, I told him there would be one week where I would be away and we figured that we would find a way to record despite it, but it didn’t work out, so there was no cast this week. I certainly won’t apologize for taking a vacation but I will apologize for not planning better in advance. But now, on to business.
Week 5 values in DFS normalized on FanDuel but not on DraftKings. The result was that I took a beating on DraftKings, here I usually play a lot and did ok on FanDuel, where I usually play very little. This week looks like DK finally figured out its balance and the values are normalized quite a bit, particularly in RB and WR where I felt they were really out of whack.
This week, I am major league fading the Thursday night game. If you are playing the Thursday night game, Cam is a good play but expensive and if you’re looking for a combo play, Funchess is a solid option. There are no real solid value plays though, so I’m fading the game entirely. The only reason I’m even playing in some Thursday-Monday pools is because that is the only way to get action on the Sunday night matchup and I do like a couple players in that NYG/Den game.
Quarterbacks: I’m fading most of the chalk this week at QB, except for Drew Bress just because of salary. My value pick of the week is Trevor Siemien, who is only 5500 on DK and the Giants are a tire fire. I’ve also got Deshaun Watson in a couple spots just because he is playing against Cleveland, but I’m primarily focused on Drew Bress. The NO/Det game is the only one with a 50+ over under and I think its gonna be a 30 point effort for the Saints.
Runningbacks: There are some good values here as well. If healthy, I like Fournette to have a big game, but he’s costly and there are better low value options, but I think he could lead the position ion scoring this week. I’m also kind of looking at Lamar Miller this week, again, they are playing Cleveland, but in most of my lineups, I’m turning toward the NO/Det game again. Ingram is only 4400 and Kamara on 4500. I’m so excited by this matchup, that I am projecting 13-16 points for each of them which should provide nice value. It is extremely rare that I use both RBs from a team at the same time but today is one of those times. Jerrick McKinnon is also an interesting option if you want to only use one of the guys from NO. And if I’m using This many Saints, I must be fading Michael Thomas….
Wide Receivers: No, I am absolutely using Michael Thomas in my NO Mega-Stack. I think NO is going to try and go up early and he will be a big part of that. The value picks are something of a reach, I’m looking at Moncrief and Doctson. Both are very cheap because neither has played consistently but both have the potential to make 10+. I’m gonna take a shot on each here and there, but I’m also using Larry Fitzgerald, who seems to be immune to the struggles of his team. I’ve also got a couple shares of Golden Tate, it is the biggest game of the week and I’m definitely using Hopkins in any lineup where I have Watson. In short, there is nice balance of reliable chalk and a couple of riskier guys and if you’re paying down at QB and RB, you should be able to pay up on Wide Receiver.
Tight End: There are a bunch of guys with high upsides this week, including some cheap risky options. I’m using shares of Evan Engram in pools where I can use him (Thanks DraftKings for restricting the Sunday night game) and I’m using Seffarian-Jenkins in other pools, he has been a pleasant surprise for a team that has been a pleasant surprise. Other value plays include: Higbee, Disckon, Hooper, Watson and Kittle. All of them are risky, so proceed with caution. But if you need to save money here they are some options. Heck if using a Kittle allows you to afford a guy you really really want to use its probably a good trade off.
Defense: There is literally no projected value plays at defense this week. I’m using Denver in pools where I can and the Texans and Redskins in games where I cannot. I think the best thing you can do this week is play the matchups at defense and hope for the best. There is only one game under 40 this week so pick the matchup you really like and roll with it, This is a place I’m fitting in last with whatever budget I have left over, but so far, I’ve gotten good squads with no trouble.
This is the first week, I feel really good about my cash lineups. I’m putting a lot of faith in New Orleans, but if they come through it should be a really strong week. Good luck and we will be back next week! As always, send us questions and comments at firstname.lastname@example.org or on twitter @fignutsdfs. Thanks for listening and thank you for reading. Good luck this weekend.